ECONOMIC TRENDS: 2026
Economy
Real GDP: 2.2% (Q2) DECREASING from 2.5 (Q1)
U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 81.9 (September) DECREASING from 88.6 (August)
Sales for Retail and Food Services: +$773.9B (August '26) (+6% 1 year) INCREASING from +$730B (August '25)
U.S. Business Formation (Applications): +543,947 (September) INCREASING from 534,227 (August)
Labor
Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (September) DECREASING from 4.1% (August)
Total Non-Farm Payroll Employment: 29,000 (September) DECREASING from 133,000 (August)
Average Hourly Earnings: +3.0% (September '26) DECREASING from +3.8% (Sept. '25)
Non-Farm Labor Productivity: +1.4% (Q2) INCREASING from .8% (Q1)
Price Indices (Inflation)
CPI (Annual): +3.7% (September) INCREASING from +3.4% (August)
Core CPI (Annual): +2.6% (September) INCREASING from +2.4% (August)
Note: Excluding food and energy.
PCE (Annual): +3.4% (August) UNCHANGED from +3.4% (July)
Core PCE (Annual): +3.0% (August) UNCHNAGED from +3.0% (July)
Note: Excluding food and energy.
PPI - Producer Price Index (Annual): +6.3% (September) (+16%) INCREASED from +5.4 (August)
Note: Price to manufacturers. Price change prior to reaching consumers and business.
Current Rates
Federal funds rate: 3.75-4.00% (October 15) INCREASING over 3 months
30 year bond yield: 5.52% (October 15) INCREASING over 3 months
10 year note yield: 5.18% (October 15) INCREASING over 3 months
2 year note yield: 4.80% (October 15) INCREASING over 3 months
1 month bill yield: 4.49% (October 15) INCREASING over 3 months
Housing
Case-Shiller National Home Price Index: +1.93% (July) INCREASING over 12 months
Single family housing starts: +1,275K (August) DECREASING from +1,309K (July)
Median sales price of houses sold: $393,700 (August) INCREASING from $392,200 (July)
Consumer Health
M2 Money Supply (M1+ semi-liquid assets): +$23.34T (August) INCREASING from +$23.17T (July)
Note: Increase of 50% since February 2020.
Disposable Personal Income (Monthly): +0.0% (August) DECREASING from 0.3% (July)
Note: Calculated: personal income minus personal current taxes.
Personal Savings Rate (Monthly): +4.1% (August) DECREASING from +4.6% (July)
Note: Calculated: personal savings as a percentage of disposable personal income.