Economic Trends 2025 | Archway Capital

Economy

Real GDP: 3.8% (Q2) INCREASING from -0.6 (Q1)

U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 88.7 (November) DECREASING from 95.5 (October)

Sales for Retail and Food Services: +$732.6B (October) +3.5% Y/Y INCREASING from +$732.4B (September)

U.S. Business Formation (Applications): +535,041 (November) INCREASING from 499,574 (October)

Unemployment Rate: 4.6% (November) INCREASING from 4.4% (September)

Total Non-Farm Payroll Employment: 64,000 (November) DECREASING from 108,000 (September)

Non-Farm Labor Productivity: +3.3% (Q2) INCREASING from -1.8% (Q1)

Price Indices (Inflation)

CPI (Annual): +2.7% (November) DECREASING from +3.0% (September)

Core CPI (Annual): +2.6% (November) DECREASING from +3.0% (September)

Note: Excluding food and energy.

PCE (Annual): +2.8% (September) INCREASING from +2.7% (August)

Core PCE (Annual): +2.8% (September) DECREASING from +2.9% (August)

Note: Excluding food and energy.

PPI - Producer Price Index (Annual): +2.7% (September) INCREASING from +2.6 (August)

Note: Price to manufacturers. Price change prior to reaching consumers and business.

Current Rates

Federal funds rate: 3.50-3.75% (Dec. 22) DECREASING over 3 months

30 year bond yield: 4.83% (Dec. 22) INCREASING over 3 months

10 year note yield: 4.16% (Dec. 22) INCREASING over 3 months

2 year note yield: 3.51% (Dec. 22) DECREASING over 3 months

1 month bill yield: 3.63% (Dec. 22) DECREASING over 3 months

Housing

Case-Shiller National Home Price Index: +1.29% (September) INCREASING over 12 months

Single family housing starts: +1.30MM (August) DECREASING from +1.42MM (July)

Median sales price of houses sold: $410,800 (Q2) DECREASING from $423,100 (Q1)

Consumer Health

M2 Money Supply (M1+ semi-liquid assets): +$22.29T (October) INCREASING from +$22.21T (September)

Note: Increase of 44% since February 2020.

Disposable Personal Income (Monthly): 0.1% (September) UNCHANGED from +0.1% (August)

Note: Calculated as personal income minus personal current taxes.

Personal Savings Rate (Monthly): +4.7% (September) UNCHANGED from +4.7% (August)

Note: Calculated as personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income.