Economic Trends 2026 | Archway Capital

Economy

Real GDP: 4.4% (Q3) INCREASING from 3.8 (Q2)

U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 84.5 (January) DECREASING from 94.2 (December)

Sales for Retail and Food Services: +$735B (December) DECREASING from +$735.1B (November)

U.S. Business Formation (Applications): +532,319 (January) INCREASING from 497,046 (December)

Unemployment Rate: 4.3% (January) DECREASING from 4.4% (December)

Total Non-Farm Payroll Employment: 130,000 (January ) INCREASING from 48,000 (December)

Non-Farm Labor Productivity: +4.9% (Q3) INCREASING from 4.1% (Q2)

Price Indices (Inflation)

CPI (Annual): +2.4% (January) DECREASING from +2.7% (December)

Core CPI (Annual): +2.5% (January) DECREASING from +2.6% (December)

Note: Excluding food and energy.

PCE (Annual): +2.8% (November) INCREASING from +2.7% (October)

Core PCE (Annual): +2.8% (November) INCREASING from +2.7% (October)

Note: Excluding food and energy.

PPI - Producer Price Index (Annual): +3.0% (December) UNCHANGED from +3.0 (November)

Note: Price to manufacturers. Price change prior to reaching consumers and business.

Current Rates

Federal funds rate: 3.50-3.75% (February 13) DECREASING over 3 months

30 year bond yield: 4.69% (February 13) DECREASING over 3 months

10 year note yield: 4.05% (February 13) DECREASING over 3 months

2 year note yield: 3.41% (February 13) DECREASING over 3 months

1 month bill yield: 3.69% (February 13) DECREASING over 3 months

Housing

Case-Shiller National Home Price Index: +1.36% (November) INCREASING over 12 months

Single family housing starts: +1.24MM (October) DECREASING from +1.30MM (September)

Median sales price of houses sold: $392,300 (October) DECREASING from $405,800 (September)

Consumer Health

M2 Money Supply (M1+ semi-liquid assets): +$22.41T (December) INCREASING from +$22.32T (November)

Note: Increase of 44% since February 2020.

Disposable Personal Income (Monthly): +0.1% (November) INCREASING from -0.1% (October)

Note: Calculated: personal income minus personal current taxes.

Personal Savings Rate (Monthly): +3.5% (November) DECREASING from +3.7% (October)

Note: Calculated: personal savings as a percentage of disposable personal income.