Economic Trends 2026 | Archway Capital

Economy

Real GDP: 1.4% (Q4) DECREASING from 4.4 (Q3)

U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 91.2 (February) INCREASING from 89.0 (January)

Sales for Retail and Food Services: +$735B (December) DECREASING from +$735.1B (November)

U.S. Business Formation (Applications): +532,319 (January) INCREASING from 497,046 (December)

Unemployment Rate: 4.4% (February) DECREASING from 4.3% (January)

Total Non-Farm Payroll Employment: -92,000 (February) DECREASING from 126,000 (January)

Total Private Employment: +63,000 (February) INCREASING from 132.2MM (January)

Non-Farm Labor Productivity: +4.9% (Q3) INCREASING from 4.1% (Q2)

Price Indices (Inflation)

CPI (Annual): +2.4% (January) DECREASING from +2.7% (December)

Core CPI (Annual): +2.5% (January) DECREASING from +2.6% (December)

Note: Excluding food and energy.

PCE (Annual): +2.9% (December) INCREASING from +2.8% (November)

Core PCE (Annual): +3.0% (December) INCREASING from +2.8% (November)

Note: Excluding food and energy.

PPI - Producer Price Index (Annual): +2.9% (January) DECREASING from +3.0 (December)

Note: Price to manufacturers. Price change prior to reaching consumers and business.

Current Rates

Federal funds rate: 3.50-3.75% (March 24) DECREASING over 3 months

30 year bond yield: 4.93% (March 24) INCREASING over 3 months

10 year note yield: 4.38% (March 24) INCREASING over 3 months

2 year note yield: 3.93% (March 24) INCREASING over 3 months

1 month bill yield: 3.67% (March 24) INCREASING over 3 months

Housing

Case-Shiller National Home Price Index: +1.27% (December) INCREASING over 12 months

Single family housing starts: +981K (December) INCREASING from +942K (November)

Median sales price of houses sold: $414,400 (December) INCREASING from $397,600 (November)

Consumer Health

M2 Money Supply (M1+ semi-liquid assets): +$22.44T (January) INCREASING from +$22.36T (December)

Note: Increase of 45% since February 2020.

Disposable Personal Income (Monthly): +0.0% (December) DECREASING from 0.1% (November)

Note: Calculated: personal income minus personal current taxes.

Personal Savings Rate (Monthly): +3.6% (December) DECREASING from +3.7% (November)

Note: Calculated: personal savings as a percentage of disposable personal income.