Economic Trends 2026 | Archway Capital

Economy

Real GDP: 1.5% (Q2) DECREASING from 2.1 (Q1)

U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 89.4 (August) DECREASING from 90.2 (July)

Sales for Retail and Food Services: +$763.6B (July) DECREASING from +$768.6B (June)

U.S. Business Formation (Applications): +531,728 (July) DECREASING from 578,926 (June)

Unemployment Rate: 4.1% (August) UNCHANGED from 4.1% (July)

Total Non-Farm Payroll Employment: 162,000 (August) DECREASING from 21,000 (July)

Non-Farm Labor Productivity: +1.4% (Q2) INCREASING from %.8 (Q1)

Price Indices (Inflation)

CPI (Annual): +3.4% (August) UNCHANGED from +3.4% (July)

Core CPI (Annual): +2.4% (August) DECREASING from +2.5% (July)

Note: Excluding food and energy.

PCE (Annual): +3.3% (August) UNCHANGED from +3.3% (July)

Core PCE (Annual): +3.3% (July) UNCHNAGED from +3.3% (June)

Note: Excluding food and energy.

PPI - Producer Price Index (Annual): +5.4% (August) INCREASED from +4.7 (July)

Note: Price to manufacturers. Price change prior to reaching consumers and business.

Current Rates

Federal funds rate: 3.50-3.75% (September 15) UNCHANGED over 3 months

30 year bond yield: 5.36% (September 15) INCREASING over 3 months

10 year note yield: 4.99% (September 15) INCREASING over 3 months

2 year note yield: 4.66% (September 15) INCREASING over 3 months

1 month bill yield: 3.86% (September 15) INCREASING over 3 months

Housing

Case-Shiller National Home Price Index: +1.53% (June) INCREASING over 12 months

Single family housing starts: +1,239K (July) DECREASING from +1,415K (June)

Median sales price of houses sold: $393,800 (July) DECREASING from $403,100 (June)

Consumer Health

M2 Money Supply (M1+ semi-liquid assets): +$23.21T (July) INCREASING from +$23.11T (June)

Note: Increase of 50% since February 2020.

Disposable Personal Income (Monthly): +0.4% (July) INCREASING from 0.3% (June)

Note: Calculated: personal income minus personal current taxes.

Personal Savings Rate (Monthly): +3.0% (July) INCREASING from +2.6% (June)

Note: Calculated: personal savings as a percentage of disposable personal income.