Economic Trends 2025 | Archway Capital

Economy

Real GDP: -0.3% (Q1) DECREASING from +2.4 (Q4)

U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 86.0 (April) DECREASING from 93.9 (March)

Sales for Retail and Food Services: +$734.9B (March) INCREASING from +$724.5B (February)

U.S. Business Formation (Applications): +452,255 (March) INCREASING from 423,144 (February)

Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (March) INCREASING from 4.1% (February)

Total Non-Farm Payroll Employment: +228,000 (March) INCREASING from +117,000 (February)

Non-Farm Labor Productivity: +1.5% (Q4) DECREASING from +2.9% (Q3)

Price Indices (Inflation)

CPI (Annual): +2.4% (March) DECREASING from 2.8% (February)

Core CPI (Annual): +2.8% (March) DECREASING from +3.1% (February)

Note: Excluding food and energy.

PCE (Annual): +2.3% (March) DECREASING from +2.7% (February)

Core PCE (Annual): +2.6% (March) DECREASING from +3.0% (February)

Note: Excluding food and energy.

PPI - Producer Price Index (Annual): +2.7% (March) DECREASING from +3.2 (February)

Note: Price to manufacturers. Price change prior to reaching consumers and business.

Current Rates

Federal Funds rate: 4.25-4.50% (April 30) DECREASING over 3 months

30 year bond yield: 4.68% (April 30) DECREASING over 3 months

10 year note yield: 4.16% (April 30) DECREASING over 3 months

2 year note yield: 3.61% (April 30) DECREASING over 3 months

1 month bill yield: 4.29% (April 30) DECREASING over 3 months

Housing

Case-Shiller National Home Price Index: +3.88% (February) INCREASING over 12 months

Single family housing starts: +1.48MM (March) INCREASING from +1.45MM (February)

Median sales price of houses sold: $416,900 (Q1) DECREASING from $419,200 (Q4)

Consumer Health

M2 Money Supply (M1+ semi-liquid assets): +$21.76T (March) INCREASING from +$21.67T (February)

Note: Increase of 36% since March 2020.

Disposable Personal Income (Monthly): +0.5% (March) INCREASING from +0.4% (February)

Note: Calculated as personal income minus personal current taxes.

Personal Savings Rate (Monthly): +3.9% (March) DECREASING from +4.1% (February)

Note: Calculated as personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income.